Longshot Prospects to Follow: Big Value in Navan’s 16:37 Handicap
With 30 races taking place across Goodwood, Perth, Navan, and Punchestown on Sunday, the racing action is deep and varied. For those chasing bigger payouts, the Navan 16:37 Handicap looks particularly enticing, with Moonlight Sapphire standing out as a live 16/1 outsider. The five-year-old mare ticks several key boxes in terms of form, going preference, and course suitability, making her an intriguing each-way prospect in this ultra-competitive 1m5f contest.
Why Moonlight Sapphire Is Worth a Closer Look
Moonlight Sapphire, trained by J. Harrington and piloted by jockey T. Madden, has shown glimpses of ability in similar fields. Her last run at Navan over an extended trip of 1m6f saw her finish a staying-on 6th in a 20-runner handicap, only 4 lengths off the winner. Importantly, that was her first run in six months, and with that under her belt, she’s entitled to strip fitter today.
The step back to 1m5f should suit her, as her best performances have come over this kind of trip, including a win last year on good-to-yielding ground—similar to conditions expected here. Additionally, Harrington boasts a solid 19% strike rate at Navan over the past two years, and Madden’s 3lb claim could prove invaluable in this tightly weighted field of 16 runners. At 16/1, she screams each-way value, and punters can find more each-way insights here.
Punchestown 15:42: Placepot Heaven in 18-Runner Handicap
If you’re looking for other larger fields on Sunday, the Punchestown 15:42 Handicap Hurdle over 2m5f139y is another intriguing race where outsiders could shine. With 18 runners battling it out on good-to-yielding ground, this is a Placepot bettor’s dream.
A runner worth noting here is Ballynoe Secret, a 20/1 shot representing the in-form yard of Gavin Cromwell. With recent form figures of 4-5-3, this six-year-old appears to be knocking on the door of a big performance. His staying-on 3rd at Fairyhouse two weeks ago in similar conditions hinted at untapped potential. Cromwell’s strike rate with runners improving on their second start in handicaps is 23%, which is a notable statistic to consider. At those odds, an each-way flutter is tempting, and you can use our betting calculator to work out the potential returns.
Navan 14:17 Handicap: A Sprint Dark Horse
The earlier 5f dash at Navan (14:17) is a nightmare for favourite backers with 21 runners going to post, but that’s where value-seekers can find gold. Keep an eye on Winged Flyer, a lightly raced four-year-old available at 12/1. Trained by Edward Lynam, whose sprinters have a notable knack for success in big-field handicaps, this gelding won his maiden at Dundalk over 6f last winter, displaying blistering speed.
Although unplaced in three subsequent starts, Winged Flyer drops down in grade here, and the return to a sharp 5f is likely to play to his strengths. The booking of Colin Keane, Ireland’s champion jockey, adds further appeal. Historically, Keane has a 20% strike rate at Navan over the past two seasons, and you can compare this runner head-to-head with other competitors in this field.
Is Perth Worth a Glance? Longer Shots to Monitor
Over at Perth, the slightly better-ground conditions and smaller fields offer fewer opportunities for gigantic prices. However, in the 14:35 novice hurdle, Midnight Mischief at 14/1 could sneak into the frame. This six-year-old from the Lucinda Russell yard was well-beaten on his hurdles debut but showed significant improvement in a bumper last year on good ground.
While facing much shorter-priced rivals here, Midnight Mischief might not be a forlorn hope. Russell has pulled off shock wins at Perth before, especially with novices, and jockey Derek Fox is no stranger to getting outsiders into the mix. A small each-way investment could yield dividends, and you’ll want to check for any late withdrawals that could affect the market.
Best Bets Summary
With so many races today, picking out the best selections is essential. Here’s a quick recap of where the smart money might go:
- Moonlight Sapphire (Navan 16:37) – 16/1: Huge each-way potential in a competitive handicap; back this mare to improve off her seasonal debut.
- Ballynoe Secret (Punchestown 15:42) – 20/1: A consistent Cromwell-trained runner with place claims in a large field.
- Winged Flyer (Navan 14:17) – 12/1: Best chance of a big-field sprint upset; Colin Keane aboard is a plus.
- Midnight Mischief (Perth 14:35) – 14/1: Novice with untapped potential; Lucinda Russell excels with big-priced winners here.
Use these runners to build your own strategy or consider combining them in an accumulator. For more ideas on how to structure your bets, visit our accumulator tips page.
Final Thoughts
While Sunday may lack graded races, the opportunities for value hunters are immense. Tracks like Navan and Punchestown are notorious for delivering big-price winners in large-field handicaps, and today looks no different. Whether you’re eyeing Moonlight Sapphire at 16/1 in the Navan 16:37 or Ballynoe Secret at 20/1 in Punchestown’s 15:42, there are plenty of chances to land a big return. Be sure to see all today's AI tips and check the latest results as the action unfolds. Happy punting!
