Big-Priced Selections That Could Rattle the Bookies
Friday, May 1st, brings a packed racing schedule across six tracks, but for those seeking value at longer odds, it’s the big-price outsiders that deserve a closer look. With horses like Lady Kodiac available at 12/1 in Newmarket’s 17:15 and Storm Star priced at 10/1 in Ascot's 17:30, there’s plenty to play for. Let’s dive into today’s value bets and unearth some genuine chances lurking at significant odds.
For the full slate of runners and race times, check today’s full racecards.
Lady Kodiac (12/1) Can Shine in Newmarket 17:15
Newmarket’s 17:15 sees Lady Kodiac stepping into a competitive handicap over 6f on Good ground. Priced at 12/1, she offers plenty to like for each-way backers. C Lee takes the ride for trainer Karl Burke, a pairing that’s proved profitable in recent months. This daughter of Kodiac has a clear penchant for quick ground, evidenced by her emphatic win on Good to Firm earlier in the season.
Although her last two starts have been underwhelming, dropping back to 6f (a trip at which she boasts a record of 2 wins from 5 runs) could see her back to her best. Additionally, Newmarket’s straight course should suit her free-going style. If she can grab a prominent position early, don’t be surprised to see her trading shorter as the field reaches the business end.
For a full comparison of her and her key rivals, compare these runners head-to-head.
Storm Star (10/1) Primed to Deliver in Ascot 17:30
The penultimate race at Ascot is a tightly contested sprint over 5f on ground officially described as Good to Firm, Good in places. One horse that stands out is the Mick Channon-trained Storm Star, available at 10/1. While the favourite, likely priced around 5/2, has obvious appeal, Storm Star is the value play.
Her recent third at Windsor was better than it looked on paper, as she had to come from a difficult draw to finish strongly. Today’s smaller field and a better draw should help her chances. Jockey Alfie Redman, claiming a valuable 3lb, has been in flying form, operating at a 20% strike rate over the past two weeks. Storm Star has the ideal blend of speed and stamina to capitalise on her handicap mark of 85, which looks lenient given her performances earlier this season.
Want more longshot picks? Check out our latest each-way selections.
Ol Man Dingle (25/1) Capable of Upset in Punchestown 17:25
Off to Punchestown we go, where the 17:25 is a wide-open handicap hurdle over 2m4f. This 22-runner field may scare off some punters, but it’s in exactly these kinds of races where value lies. Enter Ol Man Dingle, a 25/1 shot who could spring a surprise.
Trained by Michael Kenneally, this 7-year-old gelding has shown promise in his last couple of races, particularly when staying on strongly to claim a respectable fifth at Gowran Park last month. The yielding ground should play to his stamina-laden style, and his record over similar distances (1 win and 4 places from 8 starts) shows consistency.
With young jockey Michael Kenneally taking a clever 5lb off his back, he carries just 10st 5lbs today, giving him every chance of outrunning his odds in a strongly run contest. If you’re a believer in late-race finishers, Ol Man Dingle is worth a flutter.
Track all the Irish racing action and latest results here.
Ajp Falco (150/1) - A Rank Outsider Worth a Small Punt?
If you’re feeling audacious, 150/1 shot Ajp Falco in Punchestown’s 19:40 might just tempt you. This son of Falco has form figures that’ll leave most punters running for the hills, but there’s a sliver of hope here. In his earlier maiden hurdles, he showed glimpses of ability, particularly when staying on late against much stronger opposition.
While his recent handicap form has been dismal, the application of first-time blinkers today and the booking of Mr P A King could spark a revival. At odds this long, he’s a pure speculative play, but with a modest each-way wager, he could liven up your evening. Remember, the field size of 21 ensures there’s ample place value on offer with some bookmakers paying extra places.
For additional insights on outsider opportunities, visit today’s full list of runners.
Value Bets Summary
- Lady Kodiac (12/1), Newmarket 17:15 - Dropping back to 6f can unlock her potential.
- Storm Star (10/1), Ascot 17:30 - Well-handicapped sprinter with ideal conditions.
- Ol Man Dingle (25/1), Punchestown 17:25 - Stamina and soft ground could see him feature.
- Ajp Falco (150/1), Punchestown 19:40 - Longshot with blinkers applied for the first time.
Accumulator Punters Beware
While the long-priced runners outlined here are intriguing fancies, you might want to mix one or two into an accumulator with today’s high-confidence favoured selections. Horses like Great Valley (4/9, Warwick 16:30) and The Cursor (5/8, Newcastle 17:53) bring stability to any multi-race bet. Calculate potential returns using our betting calculator.
Closing Thoughts
Friday’s racing offers layers of intrigue, with market leaders looking strong but several big-priced contenders holding genuine chances. If you’re playing at the larger odds, tread carefully but with belief in the angles we’ve highlighted here. As always, you can see all today’s AI tips for well-informed plays. Best of luck!
